Rare Earth Magnets

China made it illegal to export rare earth magnets at the local price. Today the same molecule trades at one price inside China and at double that abroad. That gap is the next ten years of investment thesis.

Market outlook and investment thesis on the post-April 2025 rare earth export control regime. The note walks through what changed when MOFCOM Announcement 18 added neodymium-praseodymium to the licence regime, why the chokepoint sits downstream of the mine rather than at it, and how the MP Materials and US Department of War agreement signed in July 2025 created the first sovereign-anchored price floor in critical minerals. The trade is long the ex-China integrated magnet basket against short Chinese magnet makers, with the November 2026 expiry of Announcement 70 as the entry catalyst.

• Rare earths
• China
• Sanctions