9 pagesEl Niño 2026: the agriculture and fertiliser thesis, and the trade that survives it
Everyone is suddenly long the El Niño trade. Link by link the broad commodity bull does not hold; what survives is a narrow, India-only equity play on fertiliser producers, driven by the subsidy and the Strait of Hormuz, not the rain.
30 May 2026 · Read the paper →
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Latest essays
- 31 May 2026
Copper, explained simply
Copper just hit its highest price ever. Here is the whole story in plain English and pictures: what copper does, why nothing can replace it, and why the world is starting to run short of it.
- 26 May 2026
The memory line in core PCE
For a decade the producer price line for printed circuit boards drifted sideways. In six months it ran from minus ten to plus one hundred and fifty six. The Fed has not named it yet, but it is already in the data.
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30 Apr 2026
Open PDF →▸ Research note · 8 pages
Rare Earth Magnets
China made it illegal to export rare earth magnets at the local price. Today the same molecule trades at one price inside China and at double that abroad. That gap is the next ten years of investment thesis.
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26 Apr 2026
Open PDF →▸ Research note · 5 pages
The Reflexive Trinity in Indian Equities
Foreign investors sold a record 1.18 lakh crore. The Nifty had its worst month since Covid. Indian retail SIPs hit an all-time high. All in the same month. The textbook says these three things should not happen together. Here is what is going on.
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29 Apr 2026
Open PDF →▸ Research note · 22 pages
Steel, Towers, and a Supercycle
Most power transmission contractors buy their steel towers. Transrail makes them in-house. On a 1000 crore contract, that gap is worth 40 crore of extra EBITDA. The stock trades at a discount to peers. Here is why that gap closes.
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